GLOBAL FINANCIAL MELTDOWN

PRINT BABY PRINT
https://vongreyerz.gold/print-baby-print

THE END OF THE US ECONOMIC AND MILITARY EMPIRE AND THE RISE OF GOLD
https://vongreyerz.gold/the-end-of-the-u...se-of-gold




THE EVIL CYCLES OF WAR AND ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION
https://vongreyerz.gold/the-evil-cycles-...estruction

As we approach what usually should be a blissful holiday period, the treacherous path the world is now on does not bode well for 2025 and beyond.Two global crises will dominate the world for at least several years and possibly decades.


FINANCIAL CRISIS

The crisis I have been discussing and writing about for many years is the end of the current monetary era, especially in the West. The exponential growth of debt, which we have experienced since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, is reaching an uber-exponential phase in the current century with runaway deficits and debt.

The likely course of events is unlimited money printing to counter an uncontrollable debt crisis. This leads to monetary debasement, high inflation or hyperinflation, which eventually turns into a deflationary collapse of the financial system and depression.

THERE CAN BE NO CLEARER SIGN OF THE END OF AN ECONOMIC ERA THAN WHEN THE RESERVE CURRENCY DECLINES BY 99%.  

A possible alternative would be that the financial system implodes before the money printing has taken effect, with a subsequent deflationary implosion. This would mean a period without functioning banks and money.

As this is the way every monetary system has ended in history, without fail, anyone questioning this inevitable outcome will be entirely wrong. It is only a question of when, not if.  As the Austrian economist von Mises said:

As always in history, an economic crisis always goes hand in hand with political or geopolitical turmoil. When a country spends money it doesn’t have, starting a war is the most convenient way of creating new paper money, which, of course, has ZERO intrinsic value.  Expanding credit or printing money does not create economic value, but buys time. Money printing also buys votes. Reelection is the primary objective of any government in a democratic system.

Consecutive US governments have increased US Federal debt almost every year since the early 1930s.  The current deficit is over $2 trillion, and tax revenue is only $5 trillion. With over $7 trillion in federal spending, the US government needs to borrow another 40% on top ($2T) to make ends meet.

I created the graph below in November 2016, when Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. I forecast that 8 years later (whoever was president), the debt that Trump inherited ($20 trillion) would be $40 trillion in early 2025. I based the forecast on a simple extrapolation. Since 1981, US debt has, on average, doubled every 8 years. Well, the debt will probably not reach $40T by 20 January 2025, but still, it went up by $16T rather than the $20T that I forecast. 

More importantly, as the graph below shows, debt has increased 44X since 1981, but tax revenue has only increased 6X to $4.9T.  

Can anyone explain how this debt will be repaid? The standard reply is that governments don’t need to repay their debt. Well, let me again cite history, which is such a useful empirical tool. Throughout history, a country which has not repaid its debts has, without fail, always defaulted, and the currency has gone to ZERO. 

No one must believe that it will be different this time!  A monetary crisis at the end of a major cycle leads to economic collapse, poverty and misery.  However, this current financial cycle is already developing in parallel with a geopolitical crisis of a magnitude and scale that could be greater than those of WWI and WWII.


GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS

The financial and geopolitical conflicts are clearly linked. As in many armed conflicts, the US has been involved since WWII, although the country is not directly threatened. This has been the case in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Most of these wars are about fear of losing the US hegemony. The US government subscribes to the 1904 Mackinder theory that whoever controls the Heartland controls the world. The Heartland is the area of Eastern Europe stretching to the Yangtze River in the east and the Himalayas in the south. This area has massive natural resources. 

Syria probably just fell to opposition groups backed by Turkey in an attack supported by the US military. Interestingly, the latest conflict started the same day as the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Clearly, it’s not a coincidence.

So Turkey, which for a while has ridden two horses, a Russian and an American, has now taken the US side.  Turkey is a NATO member and also a prospective BRICS member, among others, Russia, China, Iran and India. With Turkey now on the US side and against Russia, we see the first military conflict between the West and BRICS.  

Nobody knows if Syria will regroup again with Assad in Moscow and the soldiers deserting the army. For the Russia – Iran axis, Syria is strategically critical. But Russia cannot win that war with just air power and most probably does not want to divert resources from Ukraine. Thus, we now have yet another crisis in the Middle East, a situation with dire consequences for the area and the world.

So we are likely to see continued war in Syria, with anarchy and the rise of more jihadist groups. 

As Thanassis Cambanis, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, said: “In the best case scenario, Syria’s factions will struggle for primacy through contained local battles. At the other extreme, the collapse will spur a renewed period of total warfare in which factions target civilians.”

So, it is likely that more Syrian people will be homeless and migrate to Europe and the US. As we know, no Western country has the capacity to take care of these people, so again, another humanitarian catastrophe has hit the world. 

Losing access to Syria and the Mediterranean has weakened Iran, which will look for other options. The danger has always been that Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, which would lock in 24% of global oil. The US could not stop this. It would lead to oil prices at least doubling or more and a major global depression. 

The UAE (United Arab Emirates), which includes Dubai, is right by the Strait of Hormuz. Personally, I have always been surprised that so many people move to and invest in Dubai, given the major geopolitical risk that this area carries.

The world is in a severe war cycle, which, at best, will include insoluble and intractable wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe with both the US and Russia involved. And at worst, a nuclear war.

I was always of the opinion that the Ukrainian conflict is a war Russia is very unlikely to lose. And neither the US nor European NATO troops have sufficient resources to win a war with boots on the ground.

Russian missiles are currently superior, but anything can happen in a nuclear conflict. In a nuclear war, there is no winner, and that could be the end of the world, so it is not worth speculating about the outcome of such a war.


THE TRIUMPH OF DEATH

Peter Bruegel painted the “Triumph of Death” in 1562.

Currently, the world, and especially the West, is on a path to geopolitical and economic destruction. No one knows how this will end. Even if it takes years, the world is unlikely to be the same once these two cycles have run their course. 

I have already stated that the end of the current economic cycle will be devastating for the world but bearable relative to the worst outcome of the war cycle. I had a hope that Trump would settle the Ukrainian situation if the US Neocons didn’t manage to escalate it severely before January 20.

However, the Middle East conflict, with Iran involved, makes the situation much more complex, even with Trump’s best intentions.  I always believe in finding solutions, but it is hard to be optimistic when the two Cycles of Evil prevail so strongly.  At least anyone who has savings should take action to protect these against the coming implosion of financial assets.

MARKETS
Stocks in the US are massively overvalued. 
The Buffett Indicator, US Stocks to GDP, is at 208%, an all-time high.
Just a normal correction would be a 50% to 75% fall.
The Price Earnings Ratio of Nasdaq stocks is 49X. 
A decline of at least 80%, like in the early 2000s, is likely. 

Obviously, bubbles can always grow bigger before they implode. 
However, the risk of a market collapse sometime in the next few months is extremely high. Inflation will rise rapidly, as will interest rates, driven by money printing. The US 10-year treasury will greatly exceed 10%, as in the 1970s.

WEALTH PRESERVATION 
Finally, gold will continue to reflect the destruction of the dollar and most currencies. Gold in US dollars is up 10X in this century. It is likely to rise by multiples from here as money dies. I explain why in this article: THE CASE FOR GOLD IS INCONTROVERTIBLE.

Gold must be held in physical form and outside the financial system with direct access to your gold. And preferably in a safe jurisdiction outside your country of residence. Finally, especially in periods of crisis, helping others and having a close circle of family and friends is more important than all the gold in the world.





QUANTITATIVE EASING WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTIC'S : HOW TO FUND AN ECONOMIC MIRACLE 
https://ellenbrown.com/2025/02/11/quanti...ic-miracle

China went from one of the poorest countries in the world to global economic powerhouse in a mere four decades. Currently featured in the news is DeepSeek, the free, open source A.I. built by innovative Chinese entrepreneurs which just pricked the massive U.S. A.I. bubble. 
Even more impressive, however, is the infrastructure China has built, including 26,000 miles of high speed rail, the world’s largest hydroelectric power station, the longest sea-crossing bridge in the world, 100,000 miles of expressway, the world’s first commercial magnetic levitation train, the world’s largest urban metro network, seven of the world’s 10 busiest ports, and solar and wind power generation accounting for over 35% of global renewable energy capacity. Topping the list is the Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure development program involving 140 countries, through which China has invested in ports, railways, highways and energy projects worldwide.

All that takes money. Where did it come from? Numerous funding sources are named in mainstream references, but the one explored here is a rarely mentioned form of quantitative easing — the central bank just “prints the money.” (That’s the term often used, though printing presses aren’t necessarily involved.)

From 1996 to 2024, the Chinese national money supply increased by a factor of more than 53 or 5300% — from 5.84 billion to 314 billion Chinese yuan (CNY) [see charts below]. How did that happen? Exporters brought the foreign currencies (largely U.S. dollars) they received for their goods to their local banks and traded them for the CNY needed to pay their workers and suppliers. The central bank —the Public Bank of China or PBOC — printed CNY and traded them for the foreign currencies, then kept the foreign currencies as reserves, effectively doubling the national export revenue.


Investopedia confirms that policy, stating:

One major task of the Chinese central bank, the PBOC, is to absorb the large inflows of foreign capital from China’s trade surplus. The PBOC purchases foreign currency from exporters and issues that currency in local yuan. The PBOC is free to publish any amount of local currency and have it exchanged for forex. … The PBOC can print yuan as needed …. [Emphasis added.]

Interestingly, that huge 5300% explosion in local CNY did not trigger runaway inflation. In fact China’s consumer inflation rate, which was as high as 24% in 1994, leveled out after that and averaged 2.5% per year from 1996 to 2023. 


https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metri...orm=MG0AV3


How was that achieved? As in the U.S., the central bank engages in “open market operations” (selling federal securities into the open market, withdrawing excess cash). It also imposes price controls on certain essential commodities. According to a report by Nasdaq, China has implemented price controls on iron ore, copper, corn, grain, meat, eggs and vegetables as part of its 14th five-year plan (2021-2025), to ensure food security for the population. Particularly important in maintaining price stability, however, is that the money has gone into manufacturing, production and infrastructure. GDP (supply) has gone up with demand (money), keeping prices stable. [See charts below.]


https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2Gross Domestic Product for China (MKTGDPCNA646NWDB) | FRED | St. Louis Fed


Gross Domestic Product for China (MKTGDPCNA646NWDB) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
The U.S., too, has serious funding problems today, and we have engaged in quantitative easing (QE) before. Could our central bank also issue the dollars we need without triggering the dreaded scourge of hyperinflation? This article will argue that we can. But first some Chinese economic history.


From Rags to Riches in Four Decades
China’s rise from poverty began in 1978, when Deng Xiaoping introduced market-oriented reforms. Farmers were allowed to sell their surplus produce in the market, doors were opened to foreign investors and private businesses and foreign companies were encouraged to grow. By the 1990s, China had become a major exporter of low-cost manufactured goods. Key factors included cheap labor, infrastructure development and World Trade Organization membership in 2001.

Chinese labor is cheaper than in the U.S. largely because the government funds or subsidizes social needs, reducing the operational costs of Chinese companies and improving workforce productivity. The government invests heavily in public transportation infrastructure, including metros, buses and high-speed rail, making them affordable for workers and reducing the costs of getting manufacturers’ products to market.

The government funds education and vocational training programs, ensuring a steady supply of skilled workers, with government-funded technical schools and universities producing millions of graduates annually. Affordable housing programs are provided for workers, particularly in urban areas.

China’s public health care system, while not free, is heavily subsidized by the government. And a public pension system reduces the need for companies to offer private retirement plans. The Chinese government also provides direct subsidies and incentives to key industries, such as technology, renewable energy and manufacturing.

After it joined the WTO, China’s exports grew rapidly, generating large trade surpluses and an influx of foreign currency, allowing the country to accumulate massive foreign exchange reserves. In 2010, China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest exporter. In the following decade, it shifted its focus to high-tech industries, and in 2013 the Belt and Road Initiative was launched. The government directed funds through state-owned banks and enterprises, with an emphasis on infrastructure and industrial development.

Funding Exponential Growth
In the early stages of reform, foreign investment was a key source of capital. Export earnings then generated significant foreign exchange reserves. China’s high savings rate provided a pool of liquidity for investment, and domestic consumption grew. Decentralizing the banking system was also key. According to a lecture by U.K. Prof. Richard Werner:

Deng Xiaoping started with one mono bank. He realized quickly, scrap that; we’re going to have a lot of banks. He created small banks, community banks, savings banks, credit unions, regional banks, provincial banks. Now China has 4,500 banks. That’s the secret to success. That’s what we have to aim for. Then we can have prosperity for the whole world. Developing countries don’t need foreign money. They just need community banks supporting [local business] to have the money to get the latest technology.

China managed to avoid the worst impacts of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. It did not devalue its currency; it maintained strict control over capital flows and the PBOC acted as a lender of last resort, providing liquidity to state-controlled banks when needed. 
In the 1990s, however, its four major state banks did suffer massive losses, with non-performing loans totaling more than 20% of their assets. Technically, the banks were bankrupt, but the government did not let them go bust. The non-performing loans were moved on to the balance sheets of four major asset management companies (“bad banks”), and the PBOC injected new capital into the “good banks.”

In a January 2024 article titled “The Chinese Economy Is Due a Round of Quantitative Easing,” Prof. Li Wei, Director of the China Economy and Sustainable Development Center, wrote of this policy, “The central bank directly intervened in the economy by creating money. Seen this way, unconventional financing is nothing less than Chinese-style quantitative easing.”


In an August 2024 article titled “China’s 100-billion-yuan Question: Does Rare Government Bond Purchase Alter Policy Course?,” Sylvia Ma wrote of China’s forays into QE:
Purchasing government bonds in the secondary market is allowed under Chinese law, but the central bank is forbidden to subscribe to bonds directly issued by the finance ministry. [Note that this is also true of the U.S. Fed.] Such purchases from traders were tried on a small scale 20 years ago.

However, the monetary authority resorted more to printing money equivalent to soaring foreign exchange reserves from 2001, as the country saw a robust increase in trade surplus following its accession to the World Trade Organization. [Emphasis added.]
This is the covert policy of printing CNY and trading this national currency for the foreign currencies (mostly U.S. dollars) received from exporters.

What does the PBOC do with the dollars? It holds a significant portion as foreign exchange reserves, to stabilize the CNY and manage currency fluctuations; it invests in U.S. Treasury bonds and other dollar-denominated assets to earn a return; and it uses U.S. dollars to facilitate international trade deals, many of which are conducted in dollars.


The PBOC also periodically injects capital into the three “policy banks” through which the federal government implements its five-year plans. These are China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China, which provide loans and financing for domestic infrastructure and services as well as for the Belt and Road Initiative. A January 2024 Bloomberg article titled “China Injects $50 Billion Into Policy Banks in Financing Push” notes that the policy banks “are driven by government priorities more than profits,” and that some economists have called the PBOC funding injections “helicopter money” or “Chinese-style quantitative easing.”


Prof. Li argues that with the current insolvency of major real estate developers and the rise 
in local government debt, China should engage in this overt form of QE today. 
Other commentators agree, and the government appears to be moving in that direction. Prof. Li writes:

As long as it does not trigger inflation, quantitative easing can quickly and without limit generate sufficient liquidity to resolve debt issues and pump confidence into the market.… 
Quantitative easing should be the core of China’s macroeconomic policy, with more than 80% of funds coming from QE…

As the central bank is the only institution in China with the power to create money, it has the ability to create a stable environment for economic growth. [Emphasis added.]
Eighty-percent funding just from money-printing sounds pretty radical, but China’s macroeconomic policy is determined by five-year plans designed to serve the public and the economy, and the policy banks funding the plans are publicly-owned. That means profits are returned to the public purse, avoiding the sort of private financialization and speculative exploitation resulting when the U.S. Fed engaged in QE to bail out the banks after the 2007-08 banking crisis. 


The U.S. Too Could Use Another Round of QE — and Some Public Policy Banks
There is no law against governments or their central banks just printing the national currency without borrowing it first. The U.S. Federal Reserve has done it, Abraham Lincoln’s Treasury did it, and it is probably the only way out of our current federal debt crisis. As Prof. Li observes, we can do it “without limit” so long as it does not trigger inflation. 
Financial commentator Alex Krainer observes that the total U.S. debt, public and private, comes to more than $101 trillion (citing the St. Louis Fed’s graph titled “All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans”). But the monetary base — the reserves available to pay that debt — is only $5.6 trillion. That means the debt is 18 times the monetary base. The U.S. economy holds far fewer dollars than we need for economic stability.


The dollar shortfall can be filled debt- and interest-free by the U.S. Treasury, just by printing dollars as Lincoln’s Treasury did (or by issuing them digitally). It can also be done by the Fed, which “monetizes” federal securities by buying them with reserves it issues on its books, then returns the interest to the Treasury and after deducting its costs. If the newly-issued dollars are used for productive purposes, supply will go up with demand, and prices should remain stable.


Note that even social services, which don’t directly produce revenue, can be considered “productive” in that they support the “human capital” necessary for production. Workers need to be healthy and well educated in order to build competitively and well, and the government needs to supplement the social costs borne by companies if they are to compete with China’s subsidized businesses. 


Parameters would obviously need to be imposed to circumscribe Congress’s ability to spend “without limit,” backed by a compliant Treasury or Fed. An immediate need is for full transparency in budgeted expenditures. The Pentagon, for example, spends nearly $1 trillion of our taxpayer money annually and has never passed a clean audit, as required by law.
We Sorely Need an Infrastructure Bank

The U.S. is one of the few developed countries without an infrastructure bank. Ironically, it was Alexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Treasury secretary, who developed the model. Winning freedom from Great Britain left the young country with what appeared to be an unpayable debt. Hamilton traded the debt and a percentage of gold for non-voting shares in the First U.S. Bank, paying a 6% dividend. This capital was then leveraged many times over into credit to be used specifically for infrastructure and development. Based on the same model, the Second U.S. Bank funded the vibrant economic activity of the first decades of the United States. 
In the 1930s, Roosevelt’s government pulled the country out of the Great Depression by repurposing a federal agency called the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) into a lending machine for development on the Hamiltonian model. Formed under the Hoover administration, the RFC was not actually an infrastructure bank but it acted like one. Like China Development Bank, it obtained its liquidity by issuing bonds.


The primary purchaser of RFC bonds was the federal government, driving up the federal debt; but the debt to GDP ratio evened out over the next four decades, due to the dramatic increase in productivity generated by the RFC’s funding of the New Deal and World War II. That was also true of the federal debt after the American Revolution and the Civil War.


One chart that tells the story of US debt from 1790 to 2011
A pending bill for an infrastructure bank on the Hamiltonian model is HR 4052, The National Infrastructure Bank Act of 2023, which ended 2024 with 48 sponsors and was endorsed by dozens of legislatures, local councils, and organizations. Like the First and Second U.S. Banks, it is intended to be a depository bank capitalized with existing federal securities held by the private sector, for which the bank will pay an additional 2% over the interest paid by the government. The bank will then leverage this capital into roughly 10 times its value in loans, as all depository banks are entitled to do. The bill proposes to fund $5 trillion in infrastructure capitalized over a 10-year period with $500 billion in federal securities exchanged for preferred (non-voting) stock in the bank. Like the RFC, the bank will be a source of off-budget financing, adding no new costs to the federal budget. (For more information, see https://www.nibcoalition.com/.)


Growing Our Way Out of Debt
Rather than trying to kneecap our competitors with sanctions and tariffs, we can grow our way to prosperity by turning on the engines of production. Far more can be achieved through cooperation than through economic warfare. DeepSeek set the tone with its free, open source model. Rather than a heavily guarded secret, its source code is freely available to be shared and built upon by entrepreneurs around the world.


We can pull off our own economic miracle, funded with newly issued dollars backed by the full faith and credit of the government and the people. Contrary to popular belief, “full faith and credit” is valuable collateral, something even Bitcoin and gold do not have. It means the currency will be accepted everywhere – not just at the bank or the coin dealer’s but at the grocer’s and the gas station. If the government directs newly created dollars into new goods and services, supply will grow along with demand and the currency should retain its value. The government can print, pay for workers and materials, and produce its way into an economic renaissance.